2016年2月2日,星期二

采访Richard Thaler:更多关于行为经济学

詹姆斯Guszcza与Richard Thaler采访过德勤审查(2016年1月26日出版的问题18)。上周我提供了来自Thaler的总统地址的视频和幻灯片的链接在1月初的“行为经济学:过去,现任和未来”的主题上对美国经济协会。面试涵盖了相同的广泛主题,但以更具自由流动的方式。以下是泰尔的一些评论。

在econ中的生活中:
“经济学家认为他们学习的人,所谓的同性恋经济学,或者我所谓的econs,真的很聪明。他们知道经济学是最好的经济学家。他们做出了完美的预测,没有自我控制的问题,并且是完整的jerks。They’ll steal your money if they can and get away with it. Most of the people I meet don’t have any of those qualities. They have trouble balancing their checkbook without a spreadsheet. They eat too much and save too little. But nevertheless they’ll leave a tip at a restaurant even if they don’t plan to go back. So for the last four decades I’ve been pleading with economists that we should be studying Humans, not these mythical Econ creatures."
(经济学家的描述作为ECON的部落追溯到1973年由一个名为1973年写的非常有趣的讽刺Axel Leijonhufvud,《经济学中的生活》这是在那些被称为的东西中西方经济杂志,现在被称为经济调查(1973年9月,11:3,第327-337页)。书的开头是这样的:“经济部落在遥远的北方占据了广阔的领土。在外地人看来,他们的土地显得荒凉而凄凉,要想在其中穿行,就得使用粗糙的雪橇;但经过一段时间的适应,经济学会了从中谋生。他们并非没有一些真诚的、有时甚至是激烈的对祖先土地的依恋,他们的孩子从小就被培养成对他们的邻居温暖土地上的温和生活感到轻蔑。比如波兰人和社会党人。”现在回到塞勒身上。)

关于金融市场是否有效:
“高效的市场假设有两个组成部分,我称之为”免费午餐“组件,”价格是对的。“The no-free-lunch component says you can’t beat the market. And I would say that component of the hypothesis is at least approximately true. Most active managers fail to beat their passive benchmarks. The active management industry as a whole doesn’t really provide much in the way of value. I say that as a principal in an active money management firm where we do think we provide value. But the industry we belong to as a whole doesn’t seem to. So I think that part is reasonably true. And nobody’s ever really been hurt by assuming that they can’t beat the market. Certainly individual investors would probably be better off if they believed that.
"The more important part is the “price is right” component, which is saying that asset prices are equal to the true intrinsic value. ... But there are these little cases where we can see “misbehaving” up close and personal. Here’s a current one involving a closed-end mutual fund. I should say a closed-end mutual fund is a kind of mutual fund where the managers collect a pot of money and invest it and then the shares in the fund are traded and the prices of the fund can diverge from the value of the assets that they own. ... One of these closed-end funds happens to have the ticker symbol CUBA. Now, in spite of having the CUBA ticker symbol, it of course has never invested in Cuba, which would be illegal. And even if it weren’t illegal, there are no securities to buy. So it really has nothing to do with Cuba. For years it was selling for about a 10 or 15 percent discount. The day that President Obama announced his intention to relax relations with Cuba, it went to a 70 percent premium. And it’s now selling for about a 40 percent premium. If anybody can explain to me why that’s rational and what it would have to do with the possible relaxation of relations with Cuba, let me know."
公平和长期利润最大化
“在我看来,公司有很多社会责任,这些责任与利润最大化是完全一致的,如果他们关心长期. ...这里有个例子…暴风雪过后的第二天早上,一家五金店把卖15美元雪铲的价格提高到了20美元。这公平吗?人们讨厌它。现在我问我的MBA学生这个问题,他们大多数人认为这很好。毕竟,这是另一门课上的正确答案,对吧?微观经济学中,他们会说供给固定,需求向右平移,价格上升。那么真正的公司是怎么做的呢?… Home Depot . . . whoever else is doing this, they want to be around for the long run. And if they double the price of plywood the day after a hurricane, good luck getting people to come in and buy all the stuff they’re going to need to remodel their house. So firms that act responsibly are going to have loyal customers over the long run. And that just makes sense. And so maximize profits, sure, but make sure you’re maximizing profits over the long run, not over a week."
是好是坏
“在书里轻推我们创造了“选择架构”一词。这个想法是您可以设计人们选择帮助他们做出更好决策的环境。......现在,说,每当有人要求我签署副本轻推我总是写“助推好”。这是一个请求,而不是期望。公司可以推动好事,也可以推动坏事。”
理性可能需要一些推动
"Keep in mind that I am still an economist at heart. I would like markets to be more efficient. ... I’m a believer in rational behavior as a goal. I just don’t think people are very good at it on their own, so we should help if we can."