“美元的独特地位,危机和生产力,以及新兴市场的政策溢出。”以下是一些引起了我的注意的评论:
关于通胀和产出中美元汇率波动的作用:
“我们所知道的是,由于大多数贸易发票以美元完成,美元在国际贸易中具有独特作用。最近的研究表明,这些美元价格往往是粘性的 - 即,这些美元价格远远more stable than exchange rates. For non-U.S. economies, therefore, a depreciation of their currency relative to the dollar leads to almost a one-to-one increase in the price of imported goods in their own currency and, therefore, the pressures on inflation are high. On the other hand, because dollar prices of traded goods are relatively stable, the inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy are weak.
“这当然,这是乞求这个问题,为什么大多数出口商都依赖美元定价?有几个解释。首先,随着世界贸易变得更具竞争力的,希望保持其市场股票的公司更愿意保持价格稳定relative to their competitors’. If your competitors price in dollars and keep these prices sticky, this gives the firm an incentive to also price in dollars. ... Secondly, most exporters also use imported inputs for their production. If these inputs are priced in dollars that are relatively stable, then the exporters’ cost of production is relatively stable in dollar terms and, consequently, they prefer to price in dollars. ... Outside of the U.S., most nations are far more exposed to inflation driven by exchange rate fluctuations. What this also points to is that from most countries’ perspective, the exchange rate that matters is the value of their currency relative to the dollar. ...使用财政政策作为汇率政策的替代品:
"A weaker dollar has very little effect on inflation in the U.S., has an expansionary effect on exports and has a negligible effect on imports. On the other hand, a weaker rupee is highly inflationary for India, has a significant impact on its imports and has a negligible impact on exports. This expectation that a weaker currency for a non-U.S. economy is good for a country’s exports does not line up with the facts. ... What it basically means is that central bankers in developing countries have to respond pretty aggressively to exchange rate depreciations."
“所以我们在论文中分析的是一套财政仪器,可以将与货币贬值相同的结果。如您所说,这一想法返回凯恩斯,拟议进口关税和出口补贴作为货币贬值的替代品。鉴于使用这种性质的关税的非法性,我们探讨了增值税和工资补贴的作用,或者更具体地说,提高了增值税和削减工资税。我们发现的是,令人惊讶的是,这种形式的干预形式在模仿货币贬值的结果方面非常好,而不是大约但是确切地。
“该机制如下工作。当一个国家提高其增值税时,外国出口商向国家销售增加了价格,使其更具竞争力。国内公司销售当地的销售也面临高增值税,但由于这些价格调整缓慢,因为政府向他们提供了薪资减税,他们的价格不会像汇率贬值一样竞争。而且,财政贬值对通货膨胀和对重新分配的影响与汇率贬值相同。
“在政策牵引方面,法国确实实施了部分财政贬值。他们削减了工资税,但尽管他们会宣布他们只有宣布,他们只有在那里只走了一半。尽管有美德,但有政治挑战。尽管存在政治挑战实施大量财政贬值。各国通过10%的汇率贬值而没有巨大的焦虑,但如果您提高增值税10%,那将是非常突出的并且可能有理上不可行。
但我们所做的更广泛的观点是,除了汇率贬值之外,一个国家可以用来获得贸易竞争力的工具。“