2017年8月16日星期三

自动驾驶汽车:改变九分之一的工作

似乎无人驾驶车辆即将到来,尽管他们到达的时间表仍然不清楚。美国商务部经济和统计局的David Beede、Regina Powers和Cassandra Ingram在ESA第05-17期简报中探讨了“自动驾驶汽车对就业的影响”(2017年8月11日)。他们以这种方式设置了舞台:

"In September 2016, the U.S. Department of Transportation and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published policy guidelines for AVs [autonomous vehicles], recognizing their potential as “the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago” (NHTSA 2016). ... The worldwide number of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), such as backup cameras and adaptive cruise control, increased from 90 million to 140 million units between 2014 and 2016. Consumers have indicated a willingness to pay $500-$2,500 per vehicle for ADAS. Sensor technologies are rapidly advancing to provide sophisticated information to vehicle operating systems about the surrounding environment, such as road conditions and the location of other nearby vehicles. However, slower progress has been made in developing software that can mimic human driver decision-making, so that fully autonomous vehicles may not be introduced for another ten or more years ..."
自动驾驶汽车可能会在个人机动性、汽车所有权、停车安排、交通拥堵、道路安全等方面带来全面的变化。我在之前的一篇文章中浏览了一些主要的效果“无人驾驶汽车”(2012年10月31日)。

比德、鲍尔斯和英格拉姆的工作重点是涉及大量驾驶的工作。他们写道:
"In 2015, 15.5 million U.S. workers were employed in occupations that could be affected (to varying degrees) by the introduction of automated vehicles. This represents about one in nine workers. We divide these occupations into “motor vehicle operators” and “other on-the-job drivers.” Motor vehicle operators are occupations for which driving vehicles to transport persons and goods is a primary activity, are more likely to be displaced by AVs [autonomous vehicles] than other driving-related occupations. In 2015, there were 3.8 million workers in these occupations. These workers were predominately male, older, less educated, and compensated less than the typical worker. Motor vehicle operator jobs are most concentrated in the transportation and warehousing sector. Other on-the-job drivers use roadway motor vehicles to deliver services or to travel to work sites, such as first responders, construction trades, repair and installation, and personal home care aides. In 2015, there were 11.7 million workers in these occupations and they are mostly concentrated in construction, administrative and waste management, health care, and government. Other-on-the-job drivers may be more likely to benefit from greater productivity and better working conditions offered by AVs than motor vehicle operator occupations."
当他们被行业分解这些工作时,我有兴趣注意到“政府”是最多的工作可能受到无人驾驶汽车的影响的领域。这表明某些可能在提供无人驾驶车辆如何工作的例子中发挥主导作用。或不!
许多那些工作将受到自治车辆影响的人可能会推回。当统计成本和福利时,值得注意的是,由于机动车事故的风险,那些花费大量时间驾驶的人实际上是在相对危险的工作中。“他的死亡率(每10万人全日制等效工人)用于机动车辆的启动车辆运营商的机动车运营商是所有工人的10倍的速度,以及道路机动车职业伤害的数量在每10万人的工作时间损失,所有工作人员都是所有工人的8.7倍。“

任何直接影响所有美国工人的作业的创新都有可能成为一些力量的震惊。一些类型的工人在车辆中每天每天花费一部分时间将更加艰难地调整变化;对于其他人来说,自治车辆可以通过释放他们专注于他们工作的其他部分来实现救济。作者注意:
“在机动车辆操作员工作的工人年龄较大,受教育程度较低,并且在很大程度上比其他工人拥有更少的可转移技能,特别是非常规认知任务所需的技能. ...与我们所分类为机动车辆操作员的职业中的工人相比,其他的在职司机(其数量大约是机动车辆操作员的三倍)拥有更加多样化的工作活动、知识和技能。对于这一群体来说,虽然驾驶是一项重要的工作活动,但它只是许多重要工作活动中的一项,其中许多工作活动已经需要各种非常规的认知技能,而这些技能在我们的经济中越来越需要。这些工人很可能能够适应自动驾驶汽车的广泛采用。”